Copyright 1998
Allan B. Colombo
The New Millennium:
The Year-2000 Controversy
By Al Colombo
Will computers all across the United States, perhaps across the globe, suddenly malfunction and stop working when the clock strikes 00:00:01 at the turn of the Century? Is there any truth to the assertion that a large portion of mission-critical federal government computers will possibly fail because they will not be Y2-compliant? How extensive will the Y2 problem be? Will it affect all of society or just government?
From news reports it is obvious that most people do not take the Y2 threat serious enough. Research shows that both public and private sector computers are headed for serious trouble. This assumption is based in part on the fact that any microprocessor that uses the customary two-digit date code within it's programming is suspect. This includes microcontrollers embedded within hardware that operate facility subsystems.
For example, in a letter addressed to Lane Evans, Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Veterans' Affairs, House of Representatives, Joel C. Willemssen, Director, Information Resources Management, General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C., said that the facility management systems employed in the Veterans Health Administration's (VHA) 376 outpatient clinics, 173 medical centers, 29 domiciliaries, and 133 nursing homes would possibly cease to function at the strike of the clock on the 21st Century.
"Many facilities built or renovated within the last 20 years contain embedded computer systems that control, monitor, or assist in operations. Many of these systems could malfunction due to vulnerability to Year 2000 problem," says Willemssen.[1]
He adds that when the time comes, elevators might stop working, parking themselves on first floors with the doors open; HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) systems might stop operating correctly; access control and security systems could stop operating, and automated lighting systems could fail.
Another example of where the Y2 problem could seriously threaten this nation's national security is in the procurement of "supplies and equipment totaling over US$23 billion annually for Army forces around the world, LSSC's (Logistics Systems Support Center's) inability to ensure that CCSS (Commodity Command Standard Systems) is Year 2000 (Y2) compliant could result in a loss of operational support that would be widespread, costly, and potentially debilitating to important Army and other DOD (Department of Defense) agency missions," says Jack L. Brock, Jr., Director, Defense Information and Financial Management Systems.[2]
It has been estimated that the job of preparing for the on-coming turn of the Century would require a US$3 billion investment. Although that appears to be an extreme amount of money for something as seemingly trite as adding several more digits to software date code, the fact is, if left to chance without proper preparation, society has a lot more to lose than money.
Think about the ripple effect that will occur if half of the computers in use are not readied for this event. Although the other half may be Y2 compliant, which means that they can process an eight- digit date code, many of them could and will fail because they will try to communicate with other computers that have not been properly readied. To the technically untrained, this may not appear like much of a problem; but, when it occurs, it could result in nearly everything in business and finance coming to a screeching halt.
Consider for just a moment what services would be affected. Bank computers might not function properly, which means a large percentage of the population might not have access to their funds. The power grid may also cease to provide power. Again, keep in mind that although the utilities' computers may have been readied for this moment in history, they will likely be required to "talk" with other computers that have not been made Y2 compliant.
So what is the hold up? Why are professionals and government officials dragging their feet? From what I have learned, the public at large has been slow to act, probably because of distrust. It appears to be a popular perception, especially those who use this techniques themselves, that concerns--like the Y2 issue--are often perpetuated and extensively promoted for profit. In the process, the media plays on those concerns for ratings sake.
Another reason why so many computers are expected not to be Y2 compliant by the 21st Century hinges on the enormous task ahead of us. For example, the GAO recently reported that the private contractors hired by the Social Security Administration (SSA) have more than 33 million lines of additional code to write into software before 42 of the 54 state Disability Determination Services' (DDS) computer systems will be Y2 compliant. And, consider the fact that the SSA began their Y2-compliancy program approximately 10 years ago.[3]
"While SSA deserves credit for its leadership, the agency remains at risk that not all of its mission-critical systems--those necessary to prevent the disruption of benefits--will be corrected before January 1, 2000," said Willemssen, GAO.[3]
If SSA computer systems are not made Y2 compliant by the turn of the Century, many of the more than 50 million beneficiaries who receive services from the SSA, amounting to $386 billion annually, may not continue to receive their benefits. Not only that, the SSA processes 16 million new/used Social Security Card requests, 240 million earnings records, and 7 million initial claims. Many of these same computers are also used to make more than 9 million public statements and perform 99 million transactions, consisting of address corrections, benefits recomputations and eligibility reviews.[3]
Where there was once doubt, many computer experts now agree, unless critical computer systems are made Y2 compliant by the turn of the Century, wholesale problems will occur in both the public and private sectors. Even most of the small, personal computers that so many use in the workplace and at home will suffer if they are not readied for this event.
There are companies who offer either do-it-yourself or professional service solutions that are said to correct much of the problem. Of course, the best course of action is to hire a professional to do the work; but, because PCs are relatively inexpensive, this may not be economically feasible.
